Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
