Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
